Šimatonytė, A. 2010. Possible Changes in the Pace of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) Radial Increment in City Forests and Parks.   Baltic Forestry 16 (1): 8-15

Air pollution determined threats for trees growing in cities will change due to warming climate and increasing air pollution after the end of Ignalina nuclear power plant exploitation. The aim of this research was to evaluate the pace of radial increment possible changes of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in future scenarios of warming climate and increasing SO2 and NO2 concentration in city atmosphere. Wood samples were collected from 80–90 year old sample pines, growing in parks and forest parks in Vilnius and Kaunas cities, for the analysis of annual radial increment reaction to environmental changes. Multiple regression models (describing 53–66 % of variability of actual dendroscales with probability of 95 %) for predicting pine radial increment were created. If recent cautious climate warming prognosis will be true, the pace of pine radial increment possible changes in cities will be rather slow in the coming 30 years: from +0.001 to +0.004 mm per year. The pace of pine radial increment possible changes in future scenario of increasing SO2 and NO2 concentration in city atmosphere will be slow: from -0.002 till -0.006 mm per year and pine radial increment in 2020 will decrease (by 0.03–0.05 mm) in major part of sample plots despite the positive impact of warming climate.

Key words: Scots pine, radial increment, warming climate, SO2 and NO2 concentration